Communication and entertainment are two undeniable facets of popular culture. Thus, the extreme integration of the cell phone into our everyday lives comes as no surprise. They've become security blankets for baby boomers, pacifiers for teenagers, trendy accessories for the affluent, and indispensable productivity tools for executives.
With wireless communications, computing, and entertainment converging on the cell phone, you have to seriously consider replacing your current phone with a high-end smart phone. Given that nearly a billion handsets were sold last year and over a billion are projected for this year, consumers once again have shown that cell phones have become an addiction.
The wireless business remains healthy, with excellent projected growth and some interesting new twists in technology as well as services. While most consumers don't know about the technologies that power their phones, they will certainly benefit from improved features now and in the coming years. Here's a look at a dozen trends to expect.
Design And Packaging Style has eclipsed technology as
the cell-phone feature. Today, they have to be small, thin, and cool. While the clamshell remains popular, the slide is getting lots of attention, especially on multimedia handsets with music or video.
Design is key to major sales, as Motorola's RAZR proved over the past two years (Fig. 1). Apple and Helio expect the physical designs of their iPhone and Ocean models to produce not only good volume, but also major profits (Figs. 2 and 3).
Thinness is still the primary goal of designers, but you can only go so far (Fig. 4). Chipmakers are already breaching the 1-mm dimension on some chips. And, according to the packaging experts at Tessera, the stacking and interconnecting of 100-µm thin chips will further decrease board area while maintaining the thinness requirement. Other issues like heat dissipation have yet to be fully solved, but are being addressed.
Despite these efforts, video and other features continue to increase size due to the upward-scaling dimensions of required screens and batteries. One problem is working around the camera modules, which are currently the thickest components in most phones due to the optics. Nokia, Sony Ericsson, and others are working on two-camera video-conferencing phones, adding to the problem. And designers still have to reduce the number of discrete components and provide the shielding necessary to mitigate electromagnetic interference (EMI).
Radio Evolution
Most phones still remain at 2.5G with cdma2000 EV-DO and GSM/GPRS/EDGE air interfaces. But 3G is out there and on the rise. Verizon and Sprint Nextel adopted Qualcomm's EV-DO Rev A, which offers higher data rates. Don't forget Rev B and Ultra Mobile Broadband (formerly Rev C), which are waiting in the wings with even greater speeds and reliability.
UMTS WCDMA systems are also in place at AT&T, with T-Mobile yet to act. AT&T implemented the faster HSDPA and HSUPA systems, with HSPA+ on the map. This eventually will lead to long-term evolution (LTE), the OFDMA 4G upgrade for 3G WCDMA systems. UMB also uses OFDMA and promises downlink rates to 42 Mbits/s. Once again, consumers could care less about the air technology—it just needs to be fast and reliable.
However, carriers take these systems seriously because increased subscriber capacity and higher speeds lead to more revenue-generating features like video. We're still years away from 4G systems, but work continues. So, OFDMA seems to be the niche right now, with LTE leading the way. UMB is offering major competition in the U.S. And, insiders say mobile WiMAX could play a role in the next generation.
Expect More Video
MobiTV offers several channels of news and short clips through AT&T and Sprint Nextel. Verizon offers its V-Cast, a similar service. Nonetheless, expect broadcast video to replace all other video on the network. Cell-phone handsets will incorporate a separate TV receiver chip that will pick up TV broadcasts from local stations. This will relieve the network of a massive data burden while improving reception quality.
AT&T, Sprint Nextel, and Verizon have adopted the Qualcomm MediaFLO standard. Verizon Mobile V-Cast is now broadcasting, and AT&T is expected to begin broadcasting later this year. The other standard is the same as Europe's DVB-H, which is championed by Crown Castle's Modeo. Tests are ongoing, with other stations potentially coming online next year. Currently, Modeo works with the AT&T and T-Mobile networks.
Few consumers will commit to cell-phone TV, skeptical that viewing TV on a small LCD is tough under the best of conditions and nearly impossible in full sun. Nevertheless, the investments are heavy, and carriers are expecting consumers to become addicted. The industry just needs compelling content and a profitable business model.
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